BRENTWOOD, Tenn. (BP) — Entering into the final months leading up to the 2024 presidential election, former President Trump holds a sizable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among evangelicals.

Likely voters with evangelical beliefs are twice as likely to plan to cast their ballot for Trump than Harris (61% v. 31%), according to a study from Lifeway Research. Few say they are still undecided (5%) or supporting another candidate (3%).

While Trump is winning among voters who strongly agree with four theological beliefs central to evangelicalism, Harris leads among likely voters without such beliefs (47% v. 38%).

Trump holds a smaller lead among churchgoing Christian likely voters. Among those who self-identify as Christian, are registered and plan to vote and attend church at least once a month, half support Trump (49%), and 41% back Harris, with 6% undecided and 4% planning to vote for another candidate.

“Evangelical beliefs are theological in nature, and surveys have shown that on some doctrinal issues, evangelicals are in lockstep and on others they are split,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “Biblical views can influence what a person wants for society and what they think is the best way to get there, but choosing a presidential candidate is not something all people with evangelical beliefs agree on. More than a third have a different perspective from the majority.”

Evangelicals and churchgoers may be a key demographic in the upcoming election as a high percentage are registered voters. Nine in 10 evangelicals by belief (89%) are registered as are even more churchgoing Christians (96%).

Presidential polling

Much like U.S. Protestant pastors, evangelical voters were initially skeptical of Trump, but his support has solidified in the past two elections. More than a month before the 2016 election, Trump led Hillary Clinton (45% v. 31%) among Americans with evangelical beliefs, but 15% were undecided and 9% planned to vote third party, according to a Lifeway Research study. By 2020, Trump had a commanding 61-29% lead over Joe Biden among evangelical belief adherents before the election, with just 8% undecided and less than 2% voting third party. Now, Trump leads Harris by a similar 30-point margin.

His support is likely linked to the party identification of evangelicals. Almost 3 in 5 Americans with evangelical beliefs (57%) say they are either a registered Republican or consider themselves to be a member of the party. A quarter (25%) are Democrats, and 16% are Independent. Party identification is more evenly split among Christian churchgoers. Almost half (45%) say they’re Republican, 33% say Democrat and 18% are Independent.

Like previous elections, Trump’s current support among evangelicals is more solid among white and older voters. White likely voters with evangelical beliefs are the most likely to back Trump (77%). Evangelicals aged 50-64 (66%) and 65 and older (68%) are more likely to choose Trump than those who are 18-34 (48%).

The former president struggles most among African American evangelicals where just 14% plan to cast their ballot for him, and 76% back Harris.

Age and ethnicity also play a key role among churchgoing Christians. Young adults (18-34) in that group are more likely to support Harris than those 50-64 years old (51% v. 36%). Three in 5 white churchgoers (60%) plan to vote for Trump. Among African Americans who regularly attend church, 71% say they’ll cast their ballot for Harris.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats and Republicans plan to vote for their party’s nominee. Around 9 in 10 evangelicals and Christian churchgoers say they support the candidate of their political party.

“A person’s political party is more predictive of their voting intentions than their religious views,” said McConnell. “Political candidates typically invoke Christian references when convenient. Similarly, some Christians apply biblical principles to political decisions when it suits them.”

Deciding factors

Around 4 in 5 registered voters (79%) say an ability to improve the economy is an important characteristic of the candidates for deciding how to cast their vote. Most also say the candidate’s position on immigration (62%) and an ability to maintain national security (60%) are important. Almost half look for personal character (48%), position on abortion (46%) and position on foreign policy (44%). Around a third see ability to address racial injustice (34%), ability to address climate change (34%), ability to protect religious freedom (34%), position on size and role of government (33%) and likely Supreme Court nominees (32%).

Evangelical voters and those without such beliefs have many of the same priorities in the election, but some differences exist. Evangelicals are more likely than others to say position on immigration (72% v. 60%), ability to protect religious freedom (55% v. 28%) and position on foreign policy (53% v. 42%) are important, while being less likely to look for a candidate’s personal character (41% v. 51%) and ability to address climate change (26% v. 36%).

Similar divides open between Christians who attend church services at least monthly and other Americans. Regular churchgoers are more likely to look for a candidate’s ability to protect religious freedom (44% v. 28%) and less likely to see personal character (43% v. 51%), ability to address climate change (29% v. 37%) and ability to address racial injustice (30% v. 37%) as an important consideration for their vote.

Forced to choose the most important issue, voters as a whole are most likely to say the economy (34%), followed by personal character (15%) and position on immigration (13%). No other issue garnered more than 9%.

Voters with evangelical beliefs are more likely than others to say a candidate’s ability to improve the economy (39% v. 33%) or position on immigration (19% v. 12%) is the most important characteristic for them in deciding the candidate to vote for and less likely to choose personal character (10% v. 16%) or position on abortion (6% v. 10%).

“Evangelicals are not single-issue voters. On average, people with evangelical beliefs picked more than five of the 11 characteristics listed as important in their decision on a presidential candidate,” McConnell said. “When evangelicals don’t find a candidate that fits their views exactly, the largest group gives preference to the candidate they believe has the most ability to improve the economy.”

Registered voters backing Harris are more likely to say a candidate’s personal character (67%), position on abortion (62%), ability to address racial injustice (55%) and ability to address climate change (54%) is important.

Those voting for Trump are more likely to look for a candidate’s ability to improve the economy (87%), position on immigration (78%), ability to maintain national security (72%), position on foreign policy (55%), position on size and role of government (43%) and ability to protect religious freedom (41%).

For more information, view the complete report and visit LifewayResearch.com.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,200 Americans was conducted Aug. 14-30, 2024 using a national pre-recruited panel. Quotas and slight weights were used to balance gender, age, region, ethnicity, education, religion, and evangelical beliefs to more accurately reflect the population. The sample includes an over-sample of Americans with evangelical beliefs providing additional reliability for breakouts of this group with slight weighting applied to reflect the evangelical beliefs population. Totals for all Americans reduce these responses to their correct proportion through weighting. The completed sample is 1,200 surveys. The sample provides 95% confidence that the sampling error from the panel does not exceed plus or minus 3.3%. This margin of error accounts for the effect of weighting. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

Likely voters are defined as those registered to vote and plan to vote. Christians are those with a religious preference of Catholic, Protestant, non-denominational Christian, or Orthodox. Evangelical beliefs are defined using the National Association of Evangelicals Lifeway Research Evangelical Beliefs Research Definition based on respondent beliefs. Respondents are asked their level of agreement with four separate statements using a four-point, forced-choice scale (strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, strongly disagree). Those who strongly agree with all four statements are categorized as having evangelical beliefs:

• The Bible is the highest authority for what I believe.
• It is very important for me personally to encourage non-Christians to trust Jesus Christ as their Savior.
• Jesus Christ’s death on the cross is the only sacrifice that could remove the penalty of my sin.
• Only those who trust in Jesus Christ alone as their Savior receive God’s free gift of eternal salvation.

(EDITOR’S NOTE — Aaron Earls is a writer for LifeWay Christian Resources.)