BRENTWOOD, Tenn. (BP) — Heading into an election where the economy is top of mind for many voters, pastors say finances have been difficult at their church this year.

A Lifeway Research study found 66% of U.S. Protestant pastors say the economy is very or somewhat negatively impacting their church. The 2 in 3 pastors who report a negative economic impact is the highest since 2011, and the 14% who say the impact has been very negative is the highest ever recorded in the 15-year history of the study.

Around 1 in 14 (7%) say their church is seeing a positive impact. A quarter (24%) aren’t seeing any impact either way, and 3% aren’t sure.

Last year, 50% said they experienced a negative impact, 40% no impact and 8% a positive impact. In 2022, 52% reported a negative effect, 40% said it was having no effect and 7% saw a positive influence.

“National trends of a favorable stock market along with unfavorable inflation and interest can influence a local congregation’s finances, but so do more local factors that contribute to economic problems or prosperity in the church’s community,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “In general, pastors have turned a little more negative in describing economic forces impacting their church this year.”

Giving trends

Most pastors say their offering plates were at least as full as expected this year, but few saw giving top their budget.

Half (50%) say giving this year has been about what they budgeted. Only once since 2008 have as many pastors seen their giving line up closely with their budget. In 2019, 51% said church giving was about what was budgeted.

Around 3 in 10 (29%) say they didn’t make their budget this year based on giving levels. This is similar to the previous five years when the percentage of pastors who reported giving below what was budgeted ranged from 27% to 33%.

Fewer churches than normal, however, are reporting positive budget news. Today, just 16% of congregations say their giving was higher than budget. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, 21% of pastors reported giving that was above budget. Only once since 2009 have fewer pastors reported giving that topped budget, 11% in 2010.

Compared to last year, 38% of pastors say giving has been the same, 29% say it’s increased, 24% report a drop since 2023 and 9% aren’t sure.

“While almost 3 in 10 churches saw growth in offerings, it was a tough year to beat budget,” said McConnell. “Churches were clearly expecting to do a little better financially in 2024 than they have.”

When asked to identify the approximate percentage their offering changed from 2023, the average pastor says giving is up 0.15%. Specifically, 43% say their offering has remained the same, 4% say it dropped by 25% or more, 12% saw a decline of 10% to 24%, 5% say their giving fell by 9% or less, 12% say their giving grew by 9% or less, 10% say it climbed by 10% to 24% and 4% saw a 25% or more increase in giving. One in 10 (10%) aren’t sure.

Political influence

Several factors influence how pastors report the economic impact and giving levels at their churches, but one of the most predictive demographics is political party and presidential voting plans.

Republican pastors (79%) and those planning to vote for former President Donald Trump (83%) are most likely to say the economy is negatively impacting their church. Democratic pastors are most likely to say the economy is having a positive impact (21%) or no impact (34%). Those voting for Vice President Kamala Harris (35%) and those undecided (28%) are more likely than Trump voters (15%) to say the economy is having no impact.

Trump-voting and Republican pastors are more likely to report below-budget giving in 2024. Republicans (36%) are most likely to say giving has been lower than budgeted. Pastors voting for Trump (39%) and those undecided (31%) are more likely than those backing Harris (19%) to say giving has been below budget. Democrats (58%) are more likely than Republicans (46%) to say their church offerings have been about what they budgeted. Harris voters (61%) are most likely to say giving has been about what was budgeted.

Politics is also influencing pastors’ perceptions of the offerings from this year and last. Democrats (41%) are more likely than independents (30%) and Republicans (25%) to say their church’s offerings have been above 2023 levels. Pastors planning to vote for Harris (39%) are more likely than those who are undecided (28%) and those supporting Trump (23%) to say giving has been above giving in 2023. Pastors voting for Trump (31%) and undecided pastors (27%) are more likely than those backing Harris (12%) to say this year’s giving is below last year’s.

On average, pastors supporting Harris report a 4.27% growth in giving this year, while Trump-backing pastors say they’ve seen a 2.38% decline. Similarly, Democratic pastors say giving is up 5.08% in their churches this year, and Republican pastors note a 1.73% drop from 2023.

“Overall, pastors’ perceptions of the economy’s impact on their churches are statistically related to the pastor’s own politics. Since both politics and economics are external factors to a local church, it is not surprising that the influences become combined for some,” said McConnell. “More surprising is that pastors report actual offerings which fit these differences in political leanings.”

For more information, view the complete report and visit LifewayResearch.com.

Methodology

The phone survey of 1,003 Protestant pastors was conducted Aug. 8 – Sept. 3, 2024. The calling list was a stratified random sample drawn from a list of all Protestant churches. Quotas were used for church size. Each interview was conducted with the senior pastor, minister or priest at the church. Responses were weighted by region and church size to more accurately reflect the population. The completed sample is 1,003 surveys. The sample provides 95% confidence that the sampling error does not exceed plus or minus 3.3%. This margin of error accounts for the effect of weighting. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

• Comparisons are also made to the following telephone surveys using probability sampling:
  • 1,002 pastors conducted Nov. 5-12, 2009
  • 1,000 pastors conducted March 1-9, 2010
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Oct. 7-14, 2010
  • 1,002 pastors conducted Jan. 17-27, 2011
  • 1,000 pastors conducted May 18-25, 2011
  • 1,000 pastors conducted May 23-31, 2012
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Sept.11-18, 2014
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Jan. 8-22, 2016
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Aug. 30 – Sept. 18, 2017
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Aug. 29 – Sept. 11, 2018
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Aug. 30 – Sept. 24, 2019
  • 1,007 pastors conducted Sept. 2 – Oct. 2, 2020*
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Sept. 1-29, 2021
  • 1,000 pastors conducted Sept. 6-30, 2022
  • 1,004 pastors conducted Aug. 29 – Sept. 20, 2023

*Mixed-mode telephone and online

Lifeway Research is a Nashville-based, evangelical research firm that specializes in surveys about faith in culture and matters that affect churches. For more information, visit LifewayResearch.com.

(EDITOR’S NOTE — Aaron Earls is a writer for LifeWay Christian Resources.)